600 Years into the Future

(A continuation of our earlier posting, 600 Years Ago)

“It stretches my belief, Curmudge. You can foresee 600 years into the future?”

“No way, Jaded Julie. I can’t even see tomorrow on the calendar without my trifocals. We’re actually going to consider what’s going on today with an eye toward 600 years in the future. We’ll use the same assumptions as last time, with an average global temperature rise of 0.7 degrees C. per 100 years. Once again the wizard…”

“…the wizard? I thought he was put into a dungeon in 1410.”

“Same guy. His sentence was 600 years. Wizards have a long life expectancy, and they are very persistent. As I was saying, once again the wizard successfully peddled his global warming story to the world leaders; and their response was similar to what it had been in 1410. They held international meetings, (almost) reached agreements, and pledged (sort of) great sums of money to help developing nations.”

“The advent of the airplane certainly made it easier to attend those international meetings.”

“But it all went bust. The pseudo-agreements depended on countries acting contrary to their own economic interests. Money for developing nations, as with previous ‘foreign aid,’ would have gone into their leaders’ Swiss bank accounts. International scientific efforts were confounded by politics and vested interests, and the wizard was exposed as a pretender.”

“Curmudge, there must be a better way.”

“There is, Jaded Julie, and it is called capitalism. First let’s consider its opposite, socialism, which has been proven to be a total failure (the Soviet Union), or an opiate of the people (Western Europe). Characteristics of socialism include confiscatory taxation and centralized planning made by political appointees or bureaucrats with de facto tenure. The results of socialism are high unemployment, little opportunity for initiative and personal growth, and a passive citizenry totally dependent on the government for their welfare.”

“That doesn’t sound like a good way to solve a problem like global warming, assuming it is a problem. So how might this be approached in a capitalistic society?”

“Julie, I thought you’d never ask. To begin with, decisions made by millions of informed citizens, thinking critically for and about themselves, should be better than those made by a few powerful bureaucrats. If given respect and the opportunity to make things better, able citizens will gain an understanding of climate change and will devise ways to adapt to it or possibly avert it.”

“Hey, Curmudge, you just spoke of respect for people and making things better. That’s Lean; we finally got there!”

“Government should allow those with ability to succeed or fail depending on their own creativity and initiative. Equal opportunity doesn’t guarantee equal outcomes. If governments had always discouraged inventors and entrepreneurs, we’d still be living in 1410. In their normal mode of operation, governments only redistribute the pie; entrepreneurs make the pie bigger.”

“With that as an introduction, Curmudge, how are capitalism and Lean going to give us a better outcome from global warming?”

“Because they are betting their own money and are not depending on political favoritism, individuals should not be taken in by boondoggles. A smart entrepreneur will not develop a solution until he is certain there is a problem. As time passes and new information becomes available, he will be continuously refocusing his efforts. That is Lean-type continuous improvement on a long time scale.”

“If there really is global warming, and our best knowledge says we can’t control it, how will capitalism respond?”

“It’s pretty simple. Ariens will make more lawnmowers and fewer snow blowers. There may be more skin cancer, so more dermatologists will learn how to do Mohs surgery. We’ll adapt, and we might live longer.”

“Finally, Curmudge, why did we title this posting 600 Years into the Future? We talked mostly about the present.”

“Well, Jaded Julie, it seemed like a logical successor to our earlier posting, 600 Years Ago. Besides, a title is the author’s prerogative. I don’t recall there being a tornado in Gone with the Wind.”