Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Curmudge and Jaded Julie Talk About Cause and Effect

(This is the continuation of a series of postings introduced on January 22, 2010.)

“Jaded Julie, I’m concerned that many people don’t understand basic science.”

“If basic science means physical chemistry and thermodynamics, I would be concerned that you are concerned. In fact, Curmudge, I would consider you to be an unrealistic zealot.”

“No, Julie. I mean really basic grade-school stuff. Let’s write a play to illustrate a very simple lesson. The time is almost 400 years ago, and the setting is the city of Florence in northern Italy. My character is called Cattivo Uomo, and you will be Spossate Infermiera.”

“Which are, of course, Nasty Man and Jaded Nurse in Italian (actually, the adjective should follow the noun, i.e., uomo cattivo).”

“The curtain has gone up, and you and I are up early watching the sun rise.”

“What a beautiful sunrise, Cattivo.”

“It happens every morning, Spossate, just like clockwork.”

“We would be in big trouble if the sun didn’t go around the earth so regularly. It must come closer in the summer when it gets so warm here. Then the glaciers in the Alps melt back. Thankfully, it gets cooler at night when the sun is around on the other side.”

“Can you think of any other explanation for our days and nights, Spossate?”

“It seems pretty obvious to me that the sun goes around the earth. Everyone sees it rise and set, and that’s what they believe.”

“I’ve heard about another explanation…that the sun stands still at the center of our universe, and that the earth rotates once every 24 hours.”

“Outrageous! Who said that, Cattivo?”

“It was our neighbor, Mr. Galilei. His ideas are gong to get him into a lot of trouble.”

“Our play’s over, Julie. Curtain down. Did it teach you a lesson?”

“I’m shocked that 400 years ago virtually everyone thought that the sun moved around the earth every day, but that was the easiest explanation.”

“We know now that the accepted explanation was false. So what is the lesson that our story teaches?”

“I’ve got it, Curmudge. No matter how evident the effect, it does not prove the cause.”

Friday, January 22, 2010

Curmudgeon and Jaded Julie Read the Newspaper

“Curmudge, I see that you are reading the editorial and opinion pages of the newspaper.”

“It takes less time, Jaded Julie. The regular news pages contain a lot of useless stuff like the latest indiscretions of professional athletes and entertainers, and they often omit information that is truly important. In addition, the ‘news’ sometimes contains ‘spin’ that is hard to detect.”

“Okay, so what’s wrong with spin in the news?”

“If you see the ‘spun’ information again and again, you might eventually believe it. Ultimately, it may become an urban legend (the Brits call it an urban myth) in which you acquire unquestioning faith.”

“That doesn’t sound good, Curmudge, especially if the info is wrong or at least uncertain. So why should this subject be of interest to people working in health care?”

“Virtually no one that I know in health care has time to read the news critically. Perhaps we can provide some guidance to help them avoid getting hoodwinked by what they read. We’ll also give a refresher on the ethics of ‘speaking with data.’”

“How can we do that, Old Guy?”

“In our next few conversations we’ll suggest some cautionary signals that will alert the reader to possible spin. Things like confusion over cause-and-effect and the possible impact of vested interest in reported information. We’ll also mention some less familiar, but in-the-news, topics like mathematical models and peer-reviewed research publications. One story will be a parable, and another will be a play starring you as a tired-out Italian nurse, Spossate Infermiera.”

“Wow! I can hardly wait. But I’ll bet there are some people out there who are so set in their beliefs that they will consider your ideas to be just the ranting of an old man.”

“That’s okay, Julie. My age is my license to rant.”

“I presume that every one of our conversations will have a lesson. Can we add a short lesson to end your tirade for today?”

“Sure, Jaded Julie. Here it is: When a writer quotes a politician who is talking about science, put on your skeptic’s hat.”

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Curmudgeon's Wastebasket--a Companion to Kaizen Curmudgeon

“It’s a new year, Jaded Julie, and change is in the air.”

“I thought it was just a breeze blowing in from a farm outside of town. So what’s the change, Curmudge?”

“Do you recall our holiday greeting last month? To say the least, it was not all sweetness and light. I was concerned that we might offend someone by referring to Orwell’s book, 1984. There are over 4,000 employees at Affinity, and we dare not offend any of them in a corporate blog like Kaizen Curmudgeon.”

“It sounds as if you are saying that the content of Kaizen Curmudgeon must be plain vanilla, pristine pure, and squeaky clean. But a totally noncontroversial curmudgeon is an oxymoron. I suppose you’ll change your name to Santa Claus and mine to Snow White.”

“No way, Julie. Kaizen Curmudgeon will be unchanged. We’re going to start a personal blog to be a companion to the Kaizen Curmudgeon corporate blog. Let’s call the new blog Curmudgeon’s Wastebasket.”

“Might as well. That’s where the Kaizen Curmudgeon rejects go when we deep-six them, especially if they contain something controversial.”

“What is controversial, Julie, depends on the reader’s outlook. Nevertheless, our intent for Curmudgeon’s Wastebasket is just like that for Kaizen Curmudgeon—to share information with readers that they might not otherwise encounter. Our focus will continue to be Lean, health care, and leadership, but we’ll leave room for other topics—stuff that is so compelling that it demands to be shared.”

“I’m concerned, Curmudge. How will readers know about Curmudgeon’s Wastebasket? Should we publicize it by shouting from the top of the parking ramp? Maybe we could establish a ‘Code Curmudgeon’ to be announced whenever there is a new posting.”

“It shouldn’t be hard. We’ll just put a link in Kaizen Curmudgeon to direct readers to each new posting in Curmudgeon’s Wastebasket.”

“With all of these changes, I hope you are not forgetting about Lean.”

“This
is Lean, Julie. We are respecting our readers’ sensitivities and continuously improving our blogging.”

“I’m with you, Curmudge. See you in Curmudgeon’s Wastebasket.”